The ministers who decide: family photo of EU justice and home affairs ministers at their informal meeting in Dublin, 17 July 2026. Photo: Council of the EU, © European Union, 2026 (cropped).
Update, 1 October 2026, revised 2 October: the trilogue took place on 29 September, as Council document 13051/26 records. Negotiators agreed on the tasks of the EU Centre, as the Parliament’s rapporteur said in a statement on 30 September, but not on scanning private messages; Agence Europe also reports an agreement in principle on detection orders for public content. No date has been confirmed for the next round; the tracker carries every step.
Update, 9 September 2026: since this was published, Slovenia has been reclassified from Against to Unclear, because its recorded statement of October 2025 predates the government confirmed on 4 June 2026, which has not stated a position. The count is now nine governments and 32.9 per cent, 2.1 points short of a blocking minority. Slovenia’s 0.47 per cent could not close that gap alone, so the conclusion stands: Germany, Belgium and Portugal decide. The figures below are those of 8 September; the current ones are on Where the 27 governments stand.
Update, 11 September 2026: after a reader’s objection, a clarification. A blocking minority counts only when the Council votes, and the Council does not vote in the trilogues. It adopted its negotiating mandate on 26 November 2025 by qualified majority; its next decision on this file is the endorsement of whatever the trilogues produce, in the Permanent Representatives Committee and then formally, on a date not yet known. The sums below describe that future vote, on the assumption that governments vote as they have spoken. They are not a forecast of how any government will weigh a package, and a position on mandatory scanning is not a vote on a trilogue text. One sentence in the lead and one in the section on the blocking minority were clarified accordingly; the figures are unchanged.
On the positions the 27 governments have actually declared, the states opposed to mandatory scanning of private messages no longer add up to a blocking minority in the Council. There are ten of them and they represent 33.3 per cent of the EU population. A blocking minority needs more than 35 per cent. The gap is 1.7 percentage points. Three governments can close it: Germany, Belgium and Portugal. The negotiators meet again on 29 September; the Council itself votes only on what they bring back.
This is arithmetic, not a prediction. Every figure below comes from our own table of where the 27 governments stand, where each position carries a date and a source, and every sum can be checked in a minute.
What counts as a blocking minority
The Council decides this file by qualified majority. In the Council’s own words, a proposal passes when 55 per cent of member states vote in favour, which for the EU of 27 means 15 governments, and when those governments represent at least 65 per cent of the total EU population. To stop it, the Council writes that “the blocking minority must include at least four Council members representing more than 35 per cent of the EU population”.
Two conditions, then, and both have to be met. The ten opponents clear the first one without difficulty. They fail the second. Clarified 11 September 2026: this vote does not take place in the trilogues. The Council adopted its mandate on 26 November 2025 by qualified majority, and its next decision on this file is the endorsement of whatever the trilogues produce, first in the Permanent Representatives Committee and then formally, on a date not yet set. The sums describe that vote, on the assumption that governments vote as they have spoken.
Where the ten stand
Ten governments have declared themselves against mandatory detection orders: Italy (13.19 per cent of the EU population), Poland (8.29), the Netherlands (4.02), Czechia (2.42), Austria (2.03), Finland (1.24), Slovakia (1.21), Slovenia (0.47), Estonia (0.30) and Luxembourg (0.15).
Together that is 33.3 per cent. The threshold is 35. On paper the block is 1.7 points short, and the shortfall is smaller than either of the two governments that have said nothing decisive: Belgium holds 2.63 per cent of the population and Portugal 2.38. Either one of them, on its own, would close the gap and restore a blocking minority. Germany, at 18.47 per cent, would take the opponents to 51.8 per cent, which blocks comfortably.
What changed in Germany
Germany is in a category of its own on our table because its public line and its negotiating instruction are not the same thing.
The public line is from 8 October 2025, when Federal Justice Minister Stefanie Hubig said that suspicionless chat control must be taboo in a state under the rule of law. That sentence has been quoted ever since as the reason a blocking minority exists.
The instruction is from June 2026. In a Council working document published by netzpolitik.org on 2 July 2026, the German delegation states that it is not opposed to mandatory detection as long as it is a complementary measure to voluntary searching, and that the scope of voluntary searching should not be restricted, covering known material, unknown material and grooming alike.
Those are two different positions, and the second is the one the German delegation carries into the room. We have found no federal statement since 2 July that withdraws or replaces it. If one exists, send it to us and we will record it.
The other side of the board
A missing blocking minority is not the same as a majority for mandatory scanning, and the second half of the arithmetic is the half that usually goes unmentioned.
Fourteen governments support mandatory detection. They represent 43.2 per cent of the population. To carry the file they need 15 governments and 65 per cent.
- With Germany they reach 15 governments, which satisfies the first condition, but only 61.7 per cent of the population.
- With Germany and Belgium, 64.3 per cent. Still short.
- With Germany, Belgium and Portugal, 17 governments and 66.7 per cent. That is the first combination on the declared board that passes.
So mandatory detection cannot reach a qualified majority unless all three of Germany, Belgium and Portugal join the supporters and not one of the ten opponents changes its mind. And it cannot be formally blocked unless one of those same three joins the opponents. Twenty-four governments have made up their minds. The file is being decided by the other three.
What we got wrong
Until 7 September this record counted Germany among the opponents and stated that a blocking minority existed. That was wrong. Our own country footnote already carried the June instruction while the tally above it did not, which is the least excusable kind of error, because the evidence was on the page.
We corrected the table on 7 September, moved Germany to a conditional category of its own, and logged the change in the page’s changelog. The arithmetic in this article is the result of that correction. We would rather publish the correction than quietly keep a number that flattered the argument.
What is already settled, and what is not
Five political trilogues have settled two things. Encrypted communications are carved out of the regulation, which removes client side scanning from the text. Mandatory age verification has been dropped.
One question is left, and it is the original one: may detection be ordered against everyone, or only against people a judge has named. That is what the sixth trilogue on 29 September is for. We set out separately what that meeting can decide, and what it cannot.
Running alongside it, and often confused with it, is the temporary derogation known as Chat Control 1.0, which allows providers to scan voluntarily. After the Parliament’s third reading on 9 July 2026 it applies from 3 August 2026 until 3 April 2028. That is the regime in force today. The permanent regulation is the one still being negotiated.
What to watch before 29 September
- Any German federal statement that confirms or withdraws the June instruction. A repetition of the October 2025 line is not a withdrawal; the instruction is a separate document.
- Belgium and Portugal. Either one declaring against mandatory detection restores a blocking minority on its own, without Germany.
- Any softening among the ten. Italy, Poland and the Netherlands carry 25.5 points between them, so the block does not survive losing any one of the three.
How to check this
Our page on where the 27 governments stand lists every country with its population share, the date its position was recorded, the document or statement it rests on, and a changelog of every change we have made. Each of the 27 also has a page of its own, with the quote, the document behind it, both Council votes and a dated timeline; the three that decide this question are Germany, Belgium and Portugal. The percentages here are sums of figures rounded to two decimal places, so the totals carry a rounding error of a few hundredths of a point. Nothing in the argument turns on it: the gap to the threshold is 1.7 points, not 0.02.
If you can show that a position on that page is out of date, tell us and we will correct it and say what changed.
Sources
- Council of the European Union, voting system, qualified majority, for the 55 per cent and 65 per cent thresholds and the definition of a blocking minority.
- netzpolitik.org, “Interne Dokumente: EU-Staaten wollen Chatkontrolle-Zombie zurückbringen”, 2 July 2026, publishing Council working document WK 8875/2026 with the German negotiating position.
- netzpolitik.org, “Interne Dokumente: Trilog zur Chatkontrolle geht in entscheidende Phase”, 12 June 2026, for the state of the Council compromise options.
- European Digital Rights (EDRi), “The Chat Control 1.0 saga”, 4 August 2026, for the 29 September trilogue date, the encryption carve out and the dates of the derogation now in force.
- German Federal Ministry of Justice, statement by Federal Minister Stefanie Hubig, 8 October 2025.
- Brussels Record, “Chat Control: where the 27 governments stand”, for the per country positions, population shares and changelog.
